高市豪赌引爆日债“血崩”，全球债市“瑟瑟发抖”！

Core Viewpoint - Japan's fiscal outlook is increasingly concerning, leading to a sudden collapse in the bond market, with long-term bond yields reaching record highs [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rose by 5.5 basis points to 4%, marking the highest level since its issuance in 2007 and the highest in over 30 years [1]. - The 30-year bond yield jumped to 3.875%, the 20-year yield increased to 3.35%, and the 10-year yield surpassed 2.3%, reaching its highest level since 1999 [2]. - The collapse in Japanese bonds has caused turmoil in the global bond market, with U.S. 30-year bond yields rising nearly 9 basis points to 4.925% and 10-year yields reaching 4.286%, both new highs since September of the previous year [4]. Group 2: Political and Fiscal Factors - Prime Minister Kishi announced the dissolution of the Diet and scheduled elections for February 8, betting her political career on winning a majority [5]. - Kishi's call for a mandate for "significant policy changes" has raised concerns about fiscal loosening [5]. - Plans to suspend the 8% food consumption tax for two years could lead to an estimated annual tax reduction of about 5 trillion yen, exacerbating fears over Japan's high debt and rising yields [6]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Implications - Japan's public debt is among the highest globally, with debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 230% [7]. - The reduction in food consumption tax, a key source of fiscal revenue, is expected to widen the fiscal gap, necessitating increased government bond issuance, which will pressure bond prices and elevate yields [8]. - Investor bidding has become more conservative due to deepening concerns over fiscal deterioration [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - A weak auction of 20-year bonds triggered further sell-offs in Japanese government bonds [10]. - Since the announcement of a $135 billion fiscal spending plan in November, Japanese bond yields have been on the rise, reflecting market anxiety over holding long-term Japanese debt [11]. - The upcoming Bank of Japan's interest rate decision is being closely watched, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged, although there is growing concern about the impact of the yen's exchange rate on inflation [12][15].