大手笔回购，逆势翻盘

Core Viewpoint - Despite the overall decline in overseas stock index futures and the impact of international issues, the Hong Kong stock market's consumer sector has shown resilience, with notable gains in specific consumer stocks like Pop Mart and China Duty Free Group [1][4][7]. Group 1: Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector in Hong Kong has experienced an upward trend, with Pop Mart's stock rising over 5% and maintaining strong performance throughout the day, even reaching a peak increase of over 10% [4]. - Pop Mart announced a share buyback of approximately HKD 251 million for 1.4 million shares, marking its first buyback since early 2024, which is expected to attract more investor attention [4][6]. - The collaboration between Pop Mart and Honor to launch a limited edition phone targeting young consumers has further boosted investor interest [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Seasonal Factors - The upcoming Lunar New Year and winter vacation are expected to drive consumer spending, with historical data indicating that retail and dining sales during the Spring Festival typically see double-digit growth [11][12]. - The recent global consumer electronics exhibitions and new product launches are anticipated to stimulate consumer purchasing behavior, enhancing the certainty of seasonal performance for the consumer sector [13][14]. - The capital market tends to react in advance to seasonal benefits, with funds entering the market based on optimistic quarterly performance expectations, leading to price increases [15][16]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for the Consumer Sector - The consumer sector may be at a turning point for recovery and upgrade, supported by macroeconomic improvements and ongoing government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [24][25]. - Companies in the consumer sector are adopting more focused and pragmatic operational strategies, enhancing profit margins through product upgrades and cost efficiencies [28]. - Projections indicate that the revenue and net profit growth for the consumer sector will return to positive growth in 2026 and 2027, with net profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [28][29]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector is currently positioned favorably due to seasonal peaks, low valuations, and increased capital inflows, suggesting a potential recovery and growth cycle [34]. - Investors are encouraged to monitor relevant consumer indices and ETFs, such as the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF, to identify opportunities as market conditions evolve [34].