马年将至消费板块修复在即，摩根大通研报：中国消费股已具备足够吸引力

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer sector is showing signs of recovery in early 2026 after a five-year underperformance period from 2021 to 2025, driven by a combination of policy support and structural differentiation in demand [1] - The report highlights that the risk-reward ratio for Chinese consumer stocks is now attractive due to valuation advantages and profit resilience, with a focus on sector differentiation and company-specific opportunities [1] Industry Fundamentals: Mild Recovery Under Pressure - The current landscape of the Chinese consumer industry is characterized by "weak demand recovery and profit repair," with retail sales growth slowing to 1.3% year-on-year in November 2025 [2] - Forecasts suggest retail sales growth will remain at 2.6% and 2.5% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, amid a GDP growth slowdown to 4.5% and 4.1% [2] - Profit expectations for 2025 have been downgraded, with projected sales and net profit growth of only 3.7% and 8.8%, respectively, indicating potential further downward revisions if no additional stimulus is implemented [2] Core Trends Iteration: Restructuring Competitive Landscape - Price deflation has become a significant characteristic of the industry, with notable declines in key products, such as the price of Feitian Moutai dropping over 60% from its peak [3] - The trend of industry consolidation is accelerating, with leading companies leveraging cost control and digital technologies to capture market share from smaller brands [3] Changes in Consumer Behavior: Affordable Self-Indulgence and Experience-Driven Consumption - In the context of consumption downgrade, "affordable self-indulgence" has emerged as a core logic for younger consumers, who are price-sensitive yet willing to pay for emotional value and experiences [4] - Successful strategies in this segment involve differentiation, as seen with companies like Pop Mart, which utilizes a multi-IP matrix to mitigate risks associated with single IP lifecycle [4] Overseas Expansion and Demographic Restructuring Growth Logic - To counter domestic growth challenges, leading companies in sectors like home appliances and sportswear are accelerating their overseas expansion, benefiting from stronger demand and more rational competition [6] - The ongoing demographic shift, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, presents both challenges and opportunities for various sectors, driving demand growth in areas like personal care and elder services [6] Global Perspective: Valuation Advantages of Chinese Consumer Stocks - After five years of adjustment, the valuation bubble in the Chinese consumer sector has significantly compressed, with a projected P/E ratio of 17 times for 2026, lower than several other markets [7] - Notable performers since early 2026 include brands like Gu Ming and Li Ning, reflecting market recognition of quality leading companies [7] Transition from High Growth to Steady Defensive Full-Spectrum Layout - The Chinese consumer industry is transitioning from a "same rise and fall" cycle to an era where "structure is king," supported by policy measures and evolving consumption trends [8] Recommended Investment Targets - JPMorgan highlights six key investment targets across different sectors, including Laopu Gold, Luckin Coffee, and Pop Mart, focusing on companies that benefit from policy support and have strong competitive advantages [9] - Investment strategies should concentrate on sectors benefiting from policy stimulus, affordable self-indulgence trends, and those with overseas expansion capabilities to navigate domestic growth challenges [9]