君乐宝走向全国：低温液态奶更刚需了

Core Viewpoint - Junlebao has achieved counter-cyclical growth amidst industry fluctuations, demonstrating high-quality development with significant revenue and profit increases [1][2][12]. Financial Performance - Total revenue is projected to grow from 17.5 billion RMB in 2023 to 19.8 billion RMB in 2024, with 15.1 billion RMB achieved in the first nine months of 2025 [1]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 600 million RMB in 2023 to 1.16 billion RMB in 2024, reaching 940 million RMB in the first nine months of 2025 [1]. - Adjusted net profit margin is forecasted to increase from 3.4% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024, further rising to 6.2% in the first nine months of 2025 [1]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Junlebao's sales network covers all 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China, penetrating approximately 2,200 districts and counties, which accounts for about 77% of the total county-level administrative regions [2]. - According to Frost & Sullivan, Junlebao ranks third among comprehensive dairy companies in China by retail sales in 2024 [2]. Product Trends - The low-temperature liquid milk segment is a significant growth driver for Junlebao, with a strong market presence [3]. - The low-temperature liquid dairy product market is projected to grow from 77.4 billion RMB in 2019 to 89.7 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% [5]. - The fresh milk market is expected to grow from 24.2 billion RMB in 2019 to 36.9 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 8.8% [5]. Competitive Advantages - Junlebao's core competitiveness lies in its integrated operation model covering dairy farming, R&D, production, and distribution [13]. - The company has 33 modern self-owned farms and 20 dairy production plants, with a dairy cow inventory of 192,000 heads, ranking third in the country [13]. - Junlebao's self-sufficiency rate for milk sources is projected to reach 66% in 2024, the highest among large comprehensive dairy enterprises in China [13]. Innovation and R&D - Junlebao has established a leading "Scientific Nutrition Research Institute" for R&D, collaborating with top research institutions and universities [14]. - The company has successfully developed high-quality products such as "Yue Xian Huo" and "Jian Chun," which have gained significant market share [11][15]. Future Outlook - The Chinese dairy market is expected to reach 653.5 billion RMB in 2024, with per capita consumption still below the global average, indicating long-term growth potential [16]. - Junlebao plans to use funds from its Hong Kong IPO for factory construction, capacity expansion, brand marketing, and further R&D innovation [16]. - The low-temperature liquid milk penetration rate is anticipated to increase from 25.3% in 2024 to 31.8% by 2029, representing a key structural growth opportunity [16].