Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-20 14:30Core Business Growth Drivers - The HVAC business is expected to grow approximately 10% year-on-year by 2026, driven by structural upgrades and overseas demand support, slightly above Goldman Sachs' forecast of 7% [1] - The focus is shifting towards commercial HVAC applications, with significant contributions from data center liquid cooling and energy storage cooling applications, projected to reach around 1 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - The overseas market, particularly in Southeast Asia, India, and Europe, is expected to see increased HVAC penetration driven by climate factors, providing long-term growth potential [1] Order and Value Growth in EV Thermal Management - The EV thermal management component business is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of about 20% from 2025 to 2027, exceeding Goldman Sachs' forecast of 15% for 2026 [3] - The growth is supported by a robust order reserve from European automakers and an increase in the value per vehicle due to the complexity of next-generation EV thermal management systems [3] - As a key supplier in the global EV thermal management sector, the company is poised to benefit from the rising penetration of electric vehicles, particularly in the European market [3] Humanoid Robot Business Outlook - The humanoid robot actuator business is positioned as a long-term growth engine, leveraging existing technology and customer strategies for competitive advantage [4] - The company has established a dedicated R&D team of approximately 200 personnel to advance technology development, although the humanoid robot industry is still in its early validation stage [4] - Current challenges include frequent design iterations and low initial production volumes, making it difficult for this segment to contribute significantly to short-term revenue [4] Valuation and Ratings - Goldman Sachs assigns a target price of 40.9 yuan for the A-shares, indicating a potential downside of 28.8% from the closing price, maintaining a "neutral" rating, while the target price for Hong Kong shares is set at 43.1 HKD, suggesting an upside of 11.9% [5] - The financial forecast estimates revenues of 32.023 billion yuan, 36.563 billion yuan, and 44.918 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with EPS projected at 1.02 yuan, 1.20 yuan, and 1.43 yuan respectively, indicating steady profit growth [5] - The report emphasizes the need to differentiate between A/H share valuations, with A-shares reflecting optimistic expectations for the robot business, while Hong Kong shares offer a more reasonable valuation [6]