Here's How to Play Freeport-McMoRan Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 22, with anticipated impacts from higher unit costs and weaker volumes, although favorable copper prices may provide some benefits [1][7]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is 28 cents per share, reflecting a 9.7% year-over-year decline, while revenues are estimated at $5.05 billion, indicating an 11.7% decline year-over-year [2]. - FCX has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 17.1% [3][4]. Factors Influencing Q4 Results - FCX is expected to benefit from favorable copper prices, which remained above $5 per pound in Q4 2025 and gained approximately 18% during the quarter [8]. - The average realized copper price for FCX is estimated at $4.75 per pound, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.5% [10]. - However, lower sales volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident are projected to negatively impact performance, with expected copper sales volumes of 635 million pounds, reflecting a 35% sequential and 36% year-over-year decline [11]. - Higher unit cash costs are also anticipated to affect performance, with an increase in average unit net cash cost per pound of copper from $1.13 to $1.40, marking a 24% rise [12]. Stock Performance and Valuation - FCX shares have increased by 45.7% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry's 62.4% rise and the S&P 500's 17.3% increase [13]. - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 25.3X, slightly above the peer group average of 25.02X [15]. Investment Thesis - FCX is well-positioned with high-quality copper assets and is focused on strong execution and organic growth opportunities, supported by robust financial health and substantial cash flows [16]. - The company is expected to benefit from progress in exploration activities that will enhance production capacity [16]. - Despite the positives, challenges from higher costs and weaker sales volume outlook due to the Grasberg mine incident warrant caution [19].