昨天突发的数据反常，房价的玩笑这次开大了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the apparent contradiction between nominal and real GDP growth rates and disposable income growth rates, highlighting the implications for inflation and housing prices in China [1][22]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected at 3.99%, while the real GDP growth rate is expected to be 5% [1]. - Disposable income growth rates show both nominal and real figures at 5% for 2025, indicating stable consumer prices [1]. - The difference between nominal GDP and real GDP is a critical indicator for determining inflation; when nominal GDP exceeds real GDP, it signals inflation [1][22]. Group 2: Inflation and Housing Market - The article emphasizes that the transition from deflation to inflation is indicated by the positive difference between nominal GDP and real GDP, which is essential for supporting consumer spending and housing prices [1][22]. - Historical data from Japan illustrates that a positive shift in the nominal GDP minus real GDP often precedes a rise in housing prices [3][22]. - Current trends show that the difference between nominal GDP and real GDP has turned negative but is narrowing, suggesting potential future inflation [4][24]. Group 3: Demographic Factors - The birth rate in 2025 is projected to be 7.92 million, which poses long-term implications for housing demand and prices [7][25]. - There is a noted negative correlation between housing prices and birth rates, indicating that higher housing costs may deter family growth [8][25]. - The article argues that stabilizing housing prices at levels affordable for young people is crucial for reversing declining birth rates [25]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The article suggests that maintaining affordable housing prices is essential for improving birth rates and that this can be achieved through careful economic policies, including the potential introduction of property taxes after a market stabilization [25].