日债遭遇“特拉斯时刻”：长债收益率狂飙25个基点，市场陷入近年最混乱一日

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market experienced a severe sell-off on January 20, described by traders as "the most chaotic trading day in recent years," driven by concerns over Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's tax cuts and spending plans, which raised fears about Japan's fiscal sustainability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The sell-off led to a significant increase in long-term bond yields, with the 30-year and 40-year Japanese government bond yields rising by over 25 basis points in a single day, marking the largest daily fluctuation since the impact of Trump's tariffs on global markets last year [2]. - The weak auction results for the 20-year bonds exacerbated concerns regarding Kishida's fiscal policies, creating a vicious cycle of selling and increasing anxiety [2][8]. - The turmoil quickly spread to global bond markets, with U.S. Treasury yields also rising to four-month highs, as the 30-year yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.94% and the 10-year yield rose by 7 basis points to 4.30% [5][12]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Some investors sought opportunities amidst the panic, with Reed Capital Partners' CIO stating that the extreme market conditions prompted them to buy Japanese government bonds, indicating a belief that the market was significantly out of balance [9]. - T. Rowe Price's portfolio manager noted that investors often choose to modestly rebalance their positions during chaotic market conditions, as it is difficult to accurately predict market tops [9]. - There is a growing bearish sentiment among global bond investors towards Japanese government bonds, leading to increased interest in short-selling strategies to profit from rising yields [9]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - The sell-off intensified pressure on Japanese life insurance companies that hold substantial amounts of government bonds, with concerns about future fiscal stability making it difficult for these institutions to re-enter the market even if bond yields become more attractive [10]. - Kishida's plan to suspend sales tax on food and beverages, seen as an attempt to gain support for the upcoming elections, is expected to cost approximately 5 trillion yen (about 316 billion USD) annually, raising skepticism about the government's commitment to fiscal responsibility [10].