LPR连续持稳 降准降息仍有空间

Group 1 - The first LPR quotation of the year was released on January 20, 2026, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged from previous values, marking eight consecutive months of stability [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates and stable market rates, which have reduced the incentive for banks to lower LPR quotes [1] - The underlying reason for the unchanged LPR since June 2025 is the strong export performance and rapid development in high-tech manufacturing, which has helped the macro economy withstand external pressures [1] Group 2 - As of December 2025, the weighted average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans are both around 3.1%, indicating low social financing costs [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated that there is still room for rate cuts in 2026, with signs of stabilization in bank net interest margins [2] - The discussion around potential LPR reductions is ongoing, but the timing for significant changes may be pushed to the second quarter of 2026 [2] Group 3 - Despite economic slowdown in Q4 2025 due to real estate adjustments and weakened investment and consumption, employment remains stable and inflation is showing signs of recovery [3] - The GDP growth rate is expected to rebound to around 4.7% in Q1 2026, supported by structural monetary policy tools and investment expansion policies [3] - There is potential for comprehensive rate cuts in 2026, which could lead to a significant decrease in loan rates for businesses and households, aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [3]