50万亿定存到期 谁能接住“泼天富贵”

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of "high-interest fixed deposit maturities" is expected in 2026, with approximately 50 trillion yuan of funds set to be unlocked, impacting residents' asset allocation strategies [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Context - The high-interest deposit wave is a result of a previous surge in deposit rates during 2020-2021, where five-year fixed deposit rates reached as high as 5% due to increased credit demand and competitive banking strategies [3][4]. - The period of 2022-2023 saw a rise in "passive savings" due to market pressures, leading to a significant increase in the amount of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 [3][5]. Group 2: Deposit Maturity Scale - Estimates suggest that the scale of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 will be around 45 trillion to 50 trillion yuan, with a notable increase from 2025 [4]. - A more comprehensive analysis indicates that the maturing amount of residents' fixed deposits could reach approximately 75 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% increase compared to 2025 [5]. Group 3: Investment Preferences - Despite declining interest rates, many conservative investors are likely to continue renewing their fixed deposits due to a low tolerance for risk and a preference for capital safety over higher returns [6][7]. - The shift in investment behavior is evident as residents are moving from riskier assets to more stable income-generating assets, indicating a cautious approach to asset allocation [5][10]. Group 4: Financial Products and Trends - The demand for stable financial products, such as "solid income+" funds and conservative insurance products, is increasing as investors seek safer alternatives to traditional deposits [8][14]. - The insurance market is witnessing a revival, with products like dividend life insurance becoming popular due to their stable returns compared to fluctuating financial products [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to gain market share as a result of the deposit migration trend, driven by changing demographics and regulatory support for floating income products [13]. - Financial institutions are adapting to the changing landscape by offering competitive rates on fixed deposits and diversifying their product offerings to attract cautious investors [7][16].