金价持续刷新历史纪录，是入场还是“等待”？

Core Viewpoint - The gold prices have surged significantly, reaching new highs, driven by various market dynamics including increased investment demand and macroeconomic factors [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of January 19, the spot gold price exceeded $4690 per ounce, while silver reached $94.12 per ounce, both hitting record highs [1]. - Since 2026, the spot gold price has increased by over 7%, with 2025 witnessing more than 50 historical highs and an annual increase of over 70%, marking the highest annual growth in 46 years [1]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Sales Impact - Despite rising gold prices, consumer demand has cooled, with a reported 7.95% decline in gold consumption in China for the first three quarters of 2025, and a 32.50% drop in gold jewelry consumption [2]. - Retailers are facing challenges as consumers prefer to buy during price increases, leading to a decrease in sales for non-essential purchases [2]. Group 3: Market Adaptations - Jewelry brands are adapting by offering lightweight, high-value products and implementing trade-in policies, which have increased trade-in business by 20% [4]. - The focus on enhancing the gross profit contribution per gram of gold jewelry is seen as crucial for retailers to navigate the current market conditions [4]. Group 4: Investment Demand - Investment demand for gold has outpaced consumption for the first time in 30 years, with gold bars and coins sales increasing by 24.55% year-on-year [5]. - The global ETF inflow for gold reached $89 billion in 2025, indicating strong international interest in gold as an investment [5]. Group 5: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The ongoing global monetary easing policies and concerns over currency devaluation are primary drivers of rising gold prices, as investors seek gold as a hedge against inflation [6]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and increased central bank purchases of gold further support the demand and price stability for gold [6].