中国用电量破10万亿，格局之变藏着AI时代先手棋

Core Insights - China's electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, doubling from 2015 levels and surpassing the annual consumption of major economies like the US, EU, Russia, India, and Japan [3][6][10] - The growth in electricity demand is driven by industrial modernization, the rise of electric vehicles, and the increasing energy needs of AI technologies [6][7][11] Group 1: Electricity Demand Drivers - The electricity consumption growth is primarily supported by the second industry, which accounts for 64% of total electricity use, shifting from traditional high-energy industries to high-end manufacturing [6][10] - The rapid expansion of the electric vehicle market is a significant contributor to electricity demand, with the charging and swapping service industry expected to grow by 48.8% by 2025 [7][10] - The AI sector, particularly large model training and inference, is highly energy-intensive, with data centers consuming electricity comparable to small cities [7][11] Group 2: Energy Supply and Infrastructure - By 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity is expected to exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, accounting for one-third of the global total, with a reliability rate of 99.9% [10][11] - The energy structure is transitioning from a basic guarantee to a core hub, with non-fossil energy sources making up over 60% of installed capacity [10][11] - The construction of 46 ultra-high voltage lines facilitates efficient energy transmission from the west to the east, optimizing resource allocation [11][14] Group 3: Strategic Energy Planning - China's strategic planning emphasizes building a strong energy nation, focusing on a clean, low-carbon, and efficient energy system to support future industries like AI and high-end manufacturing [14][15] - The development of large hydropower projects enhances the flexibility and stability of the power system, crucial for industries with high power stability requirements [15] - The ongoing energy infrastructure development positions China as a leader in global energy and technology competition, reshaping the landscape for AI and sustainable energy transitions [15]