金价上半年或冲击5000美元 白银和铜价结构性支撑渐强

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The gold market is experiencing structural changes, with diversification becoming the core driver of price increases, as various demand sources, including institutional investors, retail investors, and central banks, are increasing their gold holdings to mitigate macroeconomic uncertainties [2][3] - UBS predicts a baseline gold price of $4,500 per ounce by year-end, but current prices have already surpassed this level. The upward momentum is expected to continue in the first half of the year, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce if concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence persist [2][3] - Political uncertainties and weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data are significant risk factors that could trigger new buying in the gold market [2][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices are primarily driven by gold prices, but the influence of supply and demand fundamentals is gradually increasing. The market is currently experiencing the longest period of supply-demand gap on record, with declining inventories [4][5] - UBS sets a year-end target price for silver at $75 per ounce, with potential for greater elasticity in the first half of the year. If gold reaches $5,000 per ounce, silver could also challenge the $100 per ounce mark [4][5] - The silver market is characterized by higher volatility, and investors are advised to maintain flexibility in their positions due to the lack of central bank support [5] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - The copper market is expected to see tightening supply-demand dynamics, with demand growth projected at 2.5% to 3% by 2026, while supply growth is anticipated to be less than 1% [6][7] - Energy transition and infrastructure development are key drivers of copper consumption growth, with sustainable demand trends expected to continue [6][7] - Recent price increases in copper have been partially driven by speculative funds, and a potential pullback could lead to a market correction, which may ultimately strengthen the foundation for future price movements [6][7]