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Core Viewpoint - The company Zhifei Biological, once a leader in the vaccine industry, is facing significant financial challenges, with a projected loss exceeding 100 billion yuan for 2025, marking a drastic decline from previous profitability [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Zhifei Biological's market capitalization is currently 40.91 billion yuan, with the actual controller Jiang Rensheng's wealth dropping below 20 billion yuan from a peak of 140 billion yuan, resulting in a loss of over 100 billion yuan [2]. - The company expects a net profit loss for 2025 in the range of 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 630% to 780% [3]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 26.07 billion yuan, a 50.74% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.018 billion yuan, down 74.99% [4]. Business Model and Challenges - Zhifei Biological's rise was largely due to its role as an agent for Merck's vaccines, with revenue growing from 6.29 billion yuan in 2011 to 306.52 billion yuan in 2021, a nearly 48-fold increase [8]. - The company has faced challenges due to a decline in public vaccination willingness and market demand, leading to significant inventory buildup and financial strain [5][11]. - As of September 2025, the company had over 14 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt and less than 2.5 billion yuan in cash, prompting a loan application of up to 10.2 billion yuan to manage its finances [2][13]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of domestic HPV vaccines has drastically changed the market landscape, leading to a significant drop in sales of Zhifei's Merck HPV vaccine, which is now struggling to sell despite contractual obligations to purchase [11][12]. - The company's inventory reached 22.218 billion yuan by the end of 2024, more than double the previous year's figure, indicating severe overstock issues [12]. Future Outlook - To navigate its current difficulties, Zhifei Biological needs to increase its investment in research and development to enhance its own product offerings and reduce reliance on external partnerships [13].