中金 | 选举的另一面：行政干预、资本让利与政策风险

Core Insights - The 2026 midterm elections are crucial for Trump and the Republican Party, with a focus on affordability issues due to high prices, interest rates, and housing costs [1][3][5] - Voter sentiment is shifting towards immediate economic pressures rather than traditional growth metrics, indicating a need for policy responses that address affordability [2][5] Economic Context - High inflation has persistently affected low- and middle-income households, particularly in housing, where affordability has significantly declined since 2022 [1][10] - The rising mortgage rates, which increased from approximately 3% in 2021 to around 6% currently, have exacerbated housing affordability issues [10][14] - Consumer debt pressures are also rising, with significant increases in overdue payments on credit cards, auto loans, and student loans [11][15] Policy Implications - As affordability becomes a central policy goal, there is a shift towards more direct interventions in pricing, interest rates, and corporate behavior [20][21] - Recent actions by Trump include proposals to limit credit card interest rates to 10% and push for legislative measures to prevent large institutional investors from buying single-family homes [21][22] - The administration's focus on affordability may lead to more aggressive policies that could disrupt markets, as seen in historical precedents [29][27] Market Reactions - The market's perception of election-year policies is cautious, with concerns that aggressive affordability measures could lead to volatility in asset prices [2][29] - Sectors with strong pricing power and high profit margins may face increased policy risks as the narrative shifts towards wealth redistribution [29][30] - Conversely, cost-benefit industries may become more favorable for investment as they align with the affordability focus [30]