张尧浠：地缘局势加剧、金价创新高突破阻力多头动力加大

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is intensifying, leading to a surge in gold prices, which have broken through resistance levels, indicating increased bullish momentum and potential for further upward movement towards the $5000 target or higher [1][5]. Price Movement - On January 20, gold opened at $4668.63 per ounce, dipped to a low of $4659.45, then rebounded to break the $4700 mark, reaching a high of $4766.01 before closing at $4763.23, marking a daily increase of $94.6 or 2.03% [3]. - The following day, January 21, gold continued its bullish trend, with expectations of further gains despite a slight recovery in the dollar index [3]. Market Expectations - Upcoming data releases, such as the U.S. December pending home sales index and October construction spending, are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices, supporting a bullish outlook [5]. - Market consensus suggests at least two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2023, which is expected to weaken the dollar and drive more investment into gold [5]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed trade war concerns are contributing to heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the metal [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold is maintaining strength above trendline resistance, with potential for a bull market that could see prices rise by over 30% this year, targeting the $5500-$6000 range [7]. - Weekly charts show consistent rebounds supported by moving averages, suggesting continued upward momentum and potential to reach the $4800 mark or higher in the near term [7]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4725 and $4670, while resistance levels are noted at $4800 and $4860 [9]. - For silver, support is at $93.40 and $91.30, with resistance at $96.00 and $97.80 [9].