3 6 Ke·2026-01-21 00:59Core Insights - In 2025, A-share listed banks in China experienced a significant shift in development logic, moving from scale competition to value creation, focusing on core business and providing precise financial services to support high-quality economic development [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share banking sector showed notable structural differentiation in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 18.41% and 29.87% respectively, while the banking sector index increased by 12.04% [1] - By the end of 2025, the total market capitalization of A-share banks reached 14.65 trillion yuan, with 35 out of 42 listed banks seeing their stock prices rise, and 19 banks experiencing gains exceeding 10% [1] - In contrast to the broad market rally in 2024, where the banking sector index rose by 43.56%, 2025 marked a transition to a more selective investment environment [1] Group 2: Performance of Major Banks - Agricultural Bank of China led the sector with a stock price increase of 52.66% in 2025, while other major banks like Industrial Bank, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China saw increases of 21.54%, 12.87%, and 10.75% respectively [4] - The total market capitalization of the four major state-owned banks remains dominant, with Industrial Bank at 2.63 trillion yuan and Agricultural Bank at 2.61 trillion yuan [4] - The performance of other major banks was hindered by large capital increases, as several banks announced plans to raise a total of 520 billion yuan through stock issuance [4][5] Group 3: Performance of Joint-Stock Banks - Joint-stock banks exhibited further performance differentiation in 2025, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading with a 24.56% increase, while banks like Huaxia Bank, Everbright Bank, and Minsheng Bank saw declines of 9.82%, 5.59%, and 3.09% respectively [6][7] - The decline in stock prices for these banks can be attributed to poor operating performance, with Huaxia Bank and Everbright Bank reporting revenue and profit declines [8] - Regulatory penalties also impacted these banks, with Huaxia Bank facing over 120 million yuan in fines, indicating ongoing compliance pressures [10][12] Group 4: Regional and Cooperative Banks - City and rural commercial banks showed mixed performance, with Xiamen Bank rising by 35.78%, while others like Zhengzhou Bank and Beijing Bank experienced declines [11] - Regulatory penalties for city commercial banks were significant, with Shanghai Bank and Beijing Bank facing fines exceeding 3.8 million yuan and 3.6 million yuan respectively [12] Group 5: Investment Outlook for 2026 - The investment logic for bank stocks is expected to evolve towards value reassessment, with a focus on performance growth and compliance levels becoming critical for individual stock performance [19] - The banking sector is anticipated to transition from a "growth weak cycle" to a "reform deep water zone," suggesting a dual strategy of holding stable, high-dividend large banks while selectively investing in high-potential regional banks [18][19] - The average price-to-book ratio for the banking sector was approximately 0.73, indicating a structural recovery, with Agricultural Bank exceeding 1.0, while others remained below this threshold [13]