2026年财政总体支出力度“只增不减”；国际金价再创历史新高丨盘前情报

Market Overview - On January 20, the three major indices in A-shares collectively fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 69.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,100 stocks in the market declined, while the chemical sector surged, precious metals continued to show strength, and the real estate sector was active. Conversely, sectors such as computing hardware and commercial aerospace experienced significant declines [1][2]. International Market - On January 20, U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 870.74 points (1.76%) to close at 48,488.59 points, the S&P 500 down 143.15 points (2.06%) to 6,796.86 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down 561.06 points (2.39%) to 22,954.32 points. European indices also declined, with the FTSE 100 down 68.57 points (0.67%), the CAC 40 down 49.44 points (0.61%), and the DAX down 255.94 points (1.03%) [3][4]. Commodity Prices - On January 20, international oil prices rose, with light crude oil futures for February delivery increasing by $0.90 to $60.34 per barrel (1.51% increase), and Brent crude oil for March delivery rising by $0.98 to $64.92 per barrel (1.53% increase) [3][4]. Policy Updates - The Ministry of Finance announced that from April 1, 2026, export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will be canceled, and electronic product export tax rebates will be phased out over two years. This policy aims to promote efficient resource utilization and guide reasonable industrial structure adjustments, addressing "involution" and promoting high-quality economic development [5]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments extended the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy until the end of 2026, allowing eligible consumers to benefit from interest subsidies during this period [6]. Industry Insights - The National Space Administration reported that in 2025, China's commercial space sector will continue to grow rapidly, with 50 launches planned, accounting for 54% of the total annual space launches. The successful first flight of the reusable Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant technological breakthrough [7][8]. - The gold price reached a new high, with spot gold and COMEX futures both surpassing $4,700 per ounce. Analysts predict that gold prices may challenge the $5,000 per ounce mark in the first half of the year due to increased demand from institutional investors and central banks amid macroeconomic uncertainties [12][13]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with potential catalysts and performance support, such as technology (robotics, AI, energy storage) and cyclical sectors (new energy, non-ferrous metals, chemicals) [14]. - Investment opportunities are seen in the domestic rocket industry and the broader space industry, with specific companies recommended for attention, including West Materials, Feiwo Technology, and Aerospace Dynamics [8].