LME铜现货价差飙升至2021年供应紧张以来最高

Group 1 - The spot copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to a significant premium over future contracts, reaching the highest level since the historic supply tightness in 2021, with a premium of $100 per ton for contracts expiring Wednesday compared to those expiring the next day [2][3] - The recent spike in the backwardation phenomenon indicates rising spot demand, driven by production stoppages and increased copper exports to the U.S., leading to tight supply in other regions [3] - Analysts and traders expect severe structural supply constraints in the copper market, with most monthly price differentials showing backwardation until the end of 2028, potentially depleting global inventories and driving prices higher [4] Group 2 - As of last Friday, three different institutions held at least 30% of the long positions in the January contracts, which could yield over 130,000 tons of copper if held to expiration, exceeding the current spot supply in LME warehouses [3] - The increase in LME copper inventory by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons was attributed to inflows from Asian warehouses and a small inflow to the New Orleans warehouse, despite the price differential volatility having minimal impact on the three-month benchmark contract [4] - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [5]