Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-21 01:17Core Insights - The Indian smartphone market is expected to see a year-on-year decline of 7% in Q4 2025, with shipments dropping to 34.5 million units, influenced by high channel inventory, currency depreciation, and rising storage costs [1][8] - Vivo maintained its leading position in Q4 2025 with shipments of 7.9 million units, capturing a market share of 23%, while Samsung and Apple followed with 4.9 million and 3.9 million units respectively [1][8] - The overall smartphone shipments in India for 2025 are projected to be 154.2 million units, reflecting a slight decline of 1% compared to 2024 [1][8] Market Dynamics - The market is showing signs of maturity, with brands focusing on value-driven strategies rather than volume growth, particularly in the context of rising input costs and cautious consumer spending [1][7] - Vivo and OPPO were the only brands to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth in Q4 2025, highlighting their strong retail execution and ability to attract consumer demand [2][5] - Samsung's performance was supported by selective upgrades and cashback offers, but overall shipments slowed down, while Apple maintained stability due to strong demand for the iPhone 17 [5] Future Outlook - The Indian smartphone market is expected to experience a slight decline in 2026, driven by high prices and limited upgrade opportunities for users [7] - Brands are anticipated to shift towards value-driven growth, focusing on the "flagship killer" segment priced between 25,000 to 60,000 INR, which offers better profit margins amid rising storage costs [7] - Retail execution capabilities, including promotional strength and localized sales strategies, will be crucial for maintaining market stability in the coming year [7]