铜市惊现“生死时速”：隔日价差飙升至100美元！LME市场再度面临挤抢风险

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in LME copper spot prices and the dramatic widening of premiums for forward contracts indicate extreme tightness in the physical copper market, with the Tom/next spread reaching a record high since the 2021 supply crisis [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - The copper contract expiring this Wednesday saw a premium of up to $100 per ton over the next day contract, a rare occurrence since 1998, adding volatility to an already heated LME copper market [2]. - Earlier this month, copper prices exceeded $13,400 per ton, marking a historical high [2]. - The Tom/next spread's spike provides traders with a final opportunity to adjust positions before the expiration of the January contract, with three entities holding over 30% of the open long positions [2]. Group 2: Structural Supply Constraints - The extreme levels of the Tom/next spread are partly due to LME rules that limit the borrowing rates for investors holding large long positions [3]. - Analysts suggest that the overall price curve for copper indicates broader structural supply constraints, with expectations of a significant market deficit by 2028, potentially depleting global inventories and driving prices higher [3]. Group 3: Inventory Imbalances - Global copper inventories are currently adequate, but most are concentrated in U.S. warehouses, driven by traders moving record amounts of copper to the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs [4]. - The recent surge in LME spot prices has shifted U.S. futures trading to a discount, with some copper being moved to previously vacant LME warehouses in New Orleans [4]. - LME copper inventories increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, influenced by inflows from Asian warehouses and the New Orleans facility [4].