Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-21 01:33Core Viewpoint - The investment in the power grid is transitioning from "stabilizing growth" to an accelerated phase of "building a new power system," with industry prosperity expected to continue throughout the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. Group 1: Investment Outlook - The State Grid Corporation's fixed asset investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 40% compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan [1]. - To achieve the total target of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, an implied annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% is required, consistent with the 13th Five-Year Plan's rate of 7.1% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall electricity consumption is steadily increasing, driven by new demands such as electric vehicles and AI computing, maintaining rigid growth [2]. - The explosive growth of wind and solar installations during the 13th Five-Year Plan has led to nearly 80% of the new capacity exceeding the original grid planning capacity, creating a core contradiction of consumption difficulties [2]. - The main solutions to address this contradiction include the construction of external transmission channels (UHV/main grid) and the enhancement of regulation capabilities (energy storage/distribution network) [2]. Group 3: International Market Dynamics - The overseas power grid is entering a "Juglar cycle," with the average service life of equipment nearing a replacement cycle of 30-40 years, compounded by new electricity demands from AI [3]. - Due to limited expansion of local production capacity overseas, leading Chinese companies have strong delivery advantages in areas such as transformers, switches, smart meters, and insulators, potentially achieving greater heights in this investment cycle [3].