国信证券：穿越AI叙事的全天候组合

Core Viewpoint - The global asset allocation logic is shifting towards profit realization, with a priority on equity assets, while bonds require strict control of long-end risks [2] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Equity assets are prioritized in the current global asset allocation, supported by the debt-equity ratio advantage and policy support in A-shares, entering a "slow bull" phase [2] - The U.S. stock market benefits from AI efficiency dividends, leading to profit margin expansion, while the Japanese and Korean markets see significant profit upgrades due to their technology supply chain advantages [2] - Commodities are supported by AI-driven resource pricing reconstruction, physical hoarding demand, and geopolitical "safety premiums," maintaining a long bull market [2] Group 2: Macro Scenario and Investment Strategies - The macro scenario focuses on the continuation of the "AI narrative" and restrained interest rate cuts, with different risk preferences corresponding to four quadrants for investment layout [3] - Risk-seeking strategies can focus on a "strong rate cut + strong AI" combination, emphasizing mid-small cap growth, large cap growth, and gold for high elastic returns [3] - Conservative strategies may adopt a "strong rate cut + weak AI" defensive combination, centered on long bonds, gold, and large cap value stocks for stable returns and risk control [3] Group 3: All-Weather Strategy - The risk parity strategy allows for all-weather allocation, capturing the certainty of returns from bonds and gold during rate cut cycles while hedging against valuation volatility risks from the AI narrative [4] - The current domestic all-weather strategy combines short bonds as a base, with appropriate allocations to gold and equity assets, while closely monitoring uncertainties in overseas monetary policy and other risks [4]