国信证券：进口牛肉限制政策落地 看好牧业大周期反转

Group 1: Core Insights - The cyclical reversal in the livestock industry is clear, benefiting both dairy and beef cattle sectors [1] - The implementation of "country-specific quotas and additional tariffs" on imported beef starting January 1, 2026, aims to protect the domestic beef cattle industry, with an expected reduction in import volumes by nearly 20% compared to 2024 [1] - Global beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to reduced supply from major producing regions and strong demand from consuming regions, with a projected cumulative increase of nearly 60% by December 2025 [2] Group 2: Domestic Beef Supply and Demand Analysis - A price increase in domestic beef is expected to continue until 2028, driven by a tightening supply of breeding cows and a significant reduction in the number of culled cows starting in 2025 [3] - The beef supply is anticipated to increase in 2024 due to a rise in fattening bull supply, but will tighten significantly post-2025, leading to stronger upward pressure on beef prices [3]