2026年稳投资政策或加码丨温彬专栏

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to exceed 140 trillion yuan, achieving a growth rate of 5.0% at constant prices, meeting the annual target despite challenges from U.S. tariff policies and internal economic transitions [1] - The economic growth rates for 2025 were 5.4% in Q1, followed by a decline to 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% in subsequent quarters, ultimately stabilizing at 5.0%, consistent with 2024's growth [1] Consumption Insights - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% in 2025, slightly above the 3.5% growth in 2024, with goods consumption increasing by 3.8%, surpassing the growth of dining revenue at 3.2% for the first time in three years [2] - The government expanded the subsidy for replacing old consumer goods from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan, significantly boosting the sales of home appliances and other durable goods [2] Export Performance - Exports measured in U.S. dollars increased by 5.5% in 2025, despite the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade [2] - China's trade diversification strategy has successfully established the country as a major trading partner with over 150 nations, with high-tech and high-value-added products driving export growth [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a decline of 3.8% in 2025, with infrastructure investment down by 2.2% and real estate investment plummeting by 17.2% [3] - The central government plans to implement measures to stabilize investment, including increasing central budget investments and optimizing the use of local government special bonds [3] Future Economic Outlook - In 2026, consumption is expected to remain a key driver, with targeted subsidies for replacing old goods and plans to increase residents' income through various channels [3] - Export resilience is anticipated to continue, supported by strong manufacturing capabilities and trade diversification strategies [4] - Overall, the economic outlook for 2026 suggests a focus on stability and quality improvement, with proactive fiscal and monetary policies already in place [4]