2026年油价首涨，加满一箱油或多花3.5元

Group 1 - Recent international crude oil prices have shown an upward trend due to geopolitical conflicts, leading to an expected increase in domestic refined oil prices in China [1][3] - As of January 20, the average price of crude oil was $61.22 per barrel, with a change rate of 2.60%, prompting an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 85 yuan per ton [3][4] - The price adjustments will result in a slight increase in consumer fuel costs, with small private cars expected to spend an additional 3.5 yuan for a full tank, and heavy trucks seeing an increase of approximately 124 yuan in fuel costs [3][4] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the situation involving Iran, have significantly influenced international oil prices, with concerns about supply risks driving prices higher [6][7] - Analysts predict that the next round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will likely see an increase, with expectations of a change rate around 0.7% and a potential price increase of approximately 40 yuan per ton [6][7] - Despite short-term price increases, the long-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish due to an oversupply situation, with forecasts suggesting Brent crude oil prices could average around $68 per barrel in 2025 and drop to between $50 and $55 per barrel in 2026 [9][10]