GUOYUAN SECURITIES(SZ:000728) 智通财经网·2026-01-21 03:44Core Viewpoint - The media sector is expected to outperform the market in 2025, driven by a recovery in industry sentiment, abundant product supply, and stable approval of licenses, with the gaming sub-sector leading the growth [1][2]. Group 1: Sector Overview - The media sector is projected to increase by 24.75% in 2025, outperforming the market and ranking 8th among 31 sub-industries, with gaming leading the sector with a 60.67% increase [2]. - The industry experienced a revenue growth of 5.92% and a profit growth of 37.12% in the first three quarters, driven by earnings per share (EPS) [2]. - Current industry valuations are at the 47th percentile level over the past three years, indicating attractive valuations for gaming and film sectors [2]. Group 2: Gaming Sector - The mobile gaming market is expected to achieve sales revenue of 257.08 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.92% [3]. - New game releases such as "Supernatural Action Group" and "Staff Sword Legend" have exceeded expectations, while established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peace Elite" continue to perform well [3]. - The approval process for game licenses in 2025 is stable, benefiting supply-side growth, and various game companies are completing organizational adjustments, leading to a new product cycle [3]. Group 3: Film and Television Sector - The implementation of the "Broadcasting 21 Articles" policy in 2025 is favorable for long-form dramas and variety shows [4]. - The domestic short drama market is projected to reach 67.79 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, with IAA accounting for 71% of the market [4]. - The overseas short drama market is expected to grow by 145.7% to 21.07 billion yuan in 2025, with increased competition among platforms [4]. Group 4: AI Applications - AI model capabilities are continuously iterating, with major models like Gemini 3 and ChatGPT 5.2 gaining traction [5]. - The commercialization of AI is accelerating, with OpenAI's annual recurring revenue expected to reach 12 billion USD by July 2025, and various vertical applications generating over 100 million USD in annual revenue [5]. - Investment opportunities in AI applications are anticipated to grow, particularly in AI video, advertising, and gaming sectors [5]. Group 5: Recommended Stocks - Companies to watch include Giant Network, Kaiying Network, Perfect World, Century Huatong, 37 Interactive Entertainment, G-bits, Shenzhou Taiyue, Zhejiang Shuculture, Kunlun Wanwei, Kuaishou, Xindong Company, Yaoji Technology, Shanghai Film, Mango Super Media, Southern Media, and Wanxin Media [6].