Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (US:SMFG) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-21 06:07Core Viewpoint - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group plans to significantly increase its domestic sovereign debt holdings after market yields stabilize, indicating a strategic shift back to Japanese government bonds from foreign bonds [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The bank intends to double its current Japanese government bond portfolio from 10.6 trillion yen (approximately 67 billion USD) [1]. - The current focus is on Japanese government bonds (JGBs), moving away from foreign bond investments, which were previously prioritized [4]. - The bank has already begun purchasing some 30-year bonds, believing their prices are close to fair value, but remains cautious due to inflation risks and uncertainties ahead of elections [3][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The Japanese bond market recently experienced a sharp sell-off, with long-term yields reaching record highs due to concerns over fiscal policies ahead of the February elections and the Bank of Japan's reduction in large-scale bond purchases [1][5]. - The 20-year government bond yield fell by 10 basis points to 3.245%, while the benchmark 10-year bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 2.290% [1]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Nagata predicts that the Nikkei 225 index will surpass 60,000 points by the end of the year, and the yen may weaken to 180 yen per dollar in the coming years [3][8]. - The bank expects the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to exceed 2.5% by year-end, with a fair value range between 2.5% and 3% [4]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The recent sell-off in the bond market complicates the Bank of Japan's policy path, with expectations of potential interest rate hikes to address yen weakness [7]. - Nagata anticipates that the Bank of Japan may raise rates three times this year, exceeding general market expectations [7].