法巴银行：黄金将提前冲击5000美元，白银100美元或成“死亡点位”

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical uncertainties are driving gold prices towards the $5,000 per ounce mark, prompting institutions to revise their price forecasts, while silver prices are expected to face selling pressure after reaching $100 per ounce due to easing physical market disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - David Wilson, head of commodity strategy at BNP Paribas, indicates that gold traditionally strengthens in uncertain environments, a trend observed throughout the previous year [1]. - Two new key uncertainties are identified as driving gold prices: Trump's new tariff policy regarding Greenland and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and its interest rate path [1]. - BNP Paribas had predicted in November that gold prices would eventually reach $5,000, a target that now seems imminent as prices have already approached $4,700 [1][2]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Despite silver prices continuing to reach new highs, the supply shortage driving the anticipated rise in silver prices for 2025 is gradually easing, leading to potential downward pressure [2]. - Factors contributing to the recent surge in silver prices include India's new silver collateral policy, concerns over China's potential export restrictions, and U.S. plans to impose tariffs on key minerals, with silver being a primary focus [2]. - Following the White House's announcement to delay tariffs on key minerals, silver prices experienced a 7% correction, although they rebounded due to safe-haven buying in gold [2][3]. Group 3: Future Projections - The tightening conditions in the physical silver market are easing, and silver leasing rates are significantly declining, indicating that bullish factors are dissipating [3]. - Wilson anticipates that silver prices will soon reach the $100 per ounce mark, which may trigger profit-taking by speculative investors, potentially leading to a price reversal [3].