Founder Securities(SH:601901) 智通财经网·2026-01-21 06:34Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is currently experiencing a "lagging rise," with ROE on an upward trajectory, indicating that while the market performance is delayed, it is expected to improve significantly by 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The capital market is projected to maintain high prosperity in 2025, with an average daily stock fund transaction volume of 20.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.2% [1] - The average daily margin financing and securities lending balance is expected to reach 20.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.7% [1] - The A-share IPO scale is anticipated to be 130.8 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 97.4% [1] Group 2: Financial Performance Projections - The brokerage sector (43 listed brokerages) is expected to see a 34% year-on-year increase in main revenue and a 49% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 [2] - The projected net profit for key brokerages in 2025 includes: Guotai Junan (28.3 billion yuan, +117%), Dongfang Securities (6.1 billion yuan, +81%), and Zhongjin Company (8.8 billion yuan, +54%) [2] Group 3: Investment Business - The investment business is expected to perform steadily in Q4 2025, with total investment income projected to grow by 18% year-on-year [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to show a slight decline of 0.23% in Q4 2025, while the Wind All A Index is projected to increase by 0.97% [2] Group 4: Brokerage and Margin Financing Business - The average daily stock fund transaction volume in Q4 2025 is expected to reach 24.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [3] - The average daily margin financing balance is projected to be 24.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.7% [3] Group 5: Investment Banking Business - The IPO financing scale in Q4 2025 is expected to be 54.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 165.1% [4] - The refinancing scale is projected to be 138.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [4] Group 6: Asset Management Business - The total assets under management (AUM) for public funds are expected to be 37 trillion yuan, a 0.8% increase from the previous quarter [5] - The projected revenue growth for the asset management business in 2025 is expected to be 3% year-on-year [5]