格陵兰岛风暴眼：欧元贬值风险远超美元？

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions surrounding President Trump's Greenland acquisition plan are impacting currency markets, particularly the euro and the dollar, with analysts predicting potential long-term consequences for European economies [2][3]. Currency Market Impact - The dollar has weakened for two consecutive trading days, with the DXY index dropping 0.8% on Tuesday, leading to a total decline of nearly 10% over the past 12 months [3]. - The euro appreciated by 0.7% against the dollar on Tuesday, marking its largest single-day gain since September 16 [3]. Geopolitical Tensions - Analysts are closely monitoring NATO's internal tensions, with concerns that the alliance could face dissolution if U.S.-European relations deteriorate further [2]. - Trump's threats of tariffs against European nations that oppose U.S. control over Greenland are creating economic pressures on European countries, which are already increasing military spending due to security concerns following the Ukraine conflict [2]. Economic Outlook for Europe - European countries, particularly Germany, which relies heavily on exports, are at greater risk compared to the U.S. if trade relations worsen [3]. - Barclays analysts warn that the Greenland issue poses a more significant threat to the euro than the previous global tariff policies introduced by Trump [4]. Investment Behavior - European investors have significantly increased their holdings in U.S. assets over the past 15 years, driven by the strong performance of the U.S. economy [4]. - Despite potential pressures on the dollar, analysts believe that the underlying strength of the U.S. economy will maintain investor interest in dollar assets [4]. U.S. Debt Holdings - Europe is the largest holder of U.S. debt, with holdings amounting to $8 trillion, which is nearly equal to the total held by the rest of the world combined [5]. - The geopolitical stability of Western alliances is crucial for maintaining this financial relationship, and any fundamental disruption could alter Europe's willingness to hold U.S. assets [5].