Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the earnings per share forecast for Gu Ming (01364) for 2025 to 2027 by approximately 1%, with the target price slightly increased from HKD 35 to HKD 36, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and continuing to list it as an industry favorite [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The management expects the organic same-store gross merchandise volume (GMV) for 2026 to stabilize from a year-on-year decline of 5% to flat; if new products like breakfast penetrate faster, there is potential for a 5% year-on-year increase [1] - The estimated core net profit for Gu Ming in 2025 is projected to reach HKD 2.3 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 51% [1] - Revenue is expected to grow by 21% year-on-year in 2026, driven by the opening of 3,500 new stores and a slight reduction in average selling prices [1] Group 2: Store Expansion and Margins - The forecast for net new store openings has been revised upwards from 3,100 and 3,300 to 3,300 and 3,500 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with an anticipated 26% year-on-year increase in store count for 2026 [1] - The management holds a positive view on the franchise network, although it anticipates a slight negative impact on gross margins [1] - The net profit margin is expected to remain stable due to operational leverage offsetting slight pressure on gross margins, with core earnings projected to reach HKD 2.8 billion in 2026 [1]
小摩：上调古茗(01364)盈利及开店预测 目标价升至36港元