UBS(US:UBS) Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2026-01-21 07:25Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4800 per ounce, reflects a significant shift in global capital's perception of safe assets, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and the credibility of monetary policy [2][3][6] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On January 20, spot gold prices broke through $4700 per ounce, reaching a record high of $4871.01 per ounce, with a current price of $4865 per ounce [2] - Domestic gold jewelry brands have also seen prices exceed 1495 yuan per gram, indicating a synchronized increase in gold prices across markets [2] - UBS has raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 from $4500 to $5000 per ounce, with a potential peak of $5400 per ounce if political or financial risks escalate [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. tariffs on Denmark and potential trade conflicts with the EU, have heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [4] - The Federal Reserve's emphasis on maintaining its independence in monetary policy has been interpreted as a response to external pressures, further enhancing gold's appeal as a non-sovereign credit asset [3][4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to clarify their investment goals; short-term trading in gold at current high prices may carry increased risks, while long-term allocation in gold can provide diversification and hedge against potential tail risks [5] - The shift of gold from a marginal safe-haven asset to a core strategic asset is evident, as global capital seeks stability amid rising debt and geopolitical fractures [6]