“天、地、端、火箭、应用” ，五层解构商业航天产业链

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace industry is undergoing a paradigm shift from a cost-agnostic "engineering narrative" to a profit and market-driven "industrial narrative," with a focus on commercial viability rather than just technological milestones [1] Group 1: Industry Transition - China's commercial aerospace is at a "dawn moment," transitioning from an engineering-driven model to an industry-driven one, with low Earth orbit satellite constellations becoming marketable infrastructure [1] - The competition between China and the U.S. is intensifying, with China attempting to catch up to SpaceX's cost barriers through initiatives like the "GW constellation" and "Thousand Sails constellation" [1] Group 2: Satellite Manufacturing - The satellite manufacturing sector is shifting to a mass production model, akin to the automotive industry, with China's market expected to grow from approximately 7.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 39.4 billion yuan by 2030 [2] - The urgency to secure orbital and frequency resources is driving a transition from sporadic research models to continuous, batch engineering deliveries [3] Group 3: Ground Systems - Ground systems are evolving from a supporting role to a core hub in the satellite constellation, with the market projected to grow from 1.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 39.1 billion yuan by 2030 [6] - The complexity of data access, forwarding, and scheduling will increase exponentially with the rise in satellite numbers, making ground systems critical for operational success [6] Group 4: Terminal Market - The terminal segment is expected to see explosive growth, with market size projected to surge from 0.5 billion yuan in 2025 to approximately 141.9 billion yuan by 2030 [7] - The current market is limited to specialized industries, but the potential for consumer markets exists, particularly with advancements in satellite and WiFi integration [7] Group 5: Rocket Launch Costs - The primary constraint in commercial aerospace is launch costs, with current Chinese prices ranging from 50,000 to 100,000 yuan per kilogram, while SpaceX has reduced costs to about 20,000 yuan per kilogram [8] - The market for rocket launch services is expected to grow from 10.7 billion yuan in 2025 to 34.3 billion yuan by 2030, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology [9] Group 6: Application Market - The application segment is projected to grow from a mere 0.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 525 billion yuan by 2030, with applications expected to account for over 67% of revenue [10] - The strategy involves targeting specialized industries first before expanding into consumer markets, similar to SpaceX's approach with Starlink [10]