10年前买的钻戒已贬值99%

Core Viewpoint - The diamond industry is facing one of the most severe and prolonged crises in modern history, influenced by declining luxury consumption in major markets and the rising popularity of lab-grown diamonds. The recent imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on India, the largest diamond exporter, has further exacerbated the situation [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustments and Market Dynamics - De Beers announced a significant price reduction for rough diamonds over 0.75 carats during its first auction of the year, although the exact extent of the price cut remains unclear. Industry insiders estimate a price reduction range of 10% to 15% [2]. - The RapNet Diamond Price Index (RAPI) indicates a slight decline of 0.4% for diamonds over 3 carats in 2025, while smaller diamonds (0.5 carats) are expected to see a price drop exceeding 20% due to weak demand and competition from lab-grown diamonds [2][3]. - De Beers holds significant market power, controlling 60% of the rough diamond trade, but many dealers are reluctant to accept the prices set by the company in the current market environment [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Sales Performance - De Beers has accumulated over $2 billion in inventory, and the success rate of its diamond auctions has been declining, reflecting weak end-user demand. The U.S. diamond import value is projected to drop by 48% in 2025, further pressuring the market [4]. - Analysts suggest that De Beers' price cuts aim to boost sales performance and provide greater profit margins for midstream processors to stimulate market demand [4]. Group 3: Declining Value of Natural Diamonds - The value of natural diamonds has significantly decreased, with reports indicating that diamonds purchased ten years ago have depreciated by up to 99%. For instance, a diamond ring bought for 18,000 yuan can now only fetch 180 yuan [6][7]. - In contrast, gold prices have surged over 400% during the same period, leading consumers to prefer gold jewelry over diamonds [7]. Group 4: Rise of Lab-Grown Diamonds - Lab-grown diamonds are increasingly capturing market share, with their sales accounting for over 40% of the global diamond jewelry market by 2025, an increase of more than eight times since 2019 [9]. - The retail price of lab-grown diamonds has dropped over 50% from peak levels, with 1-carat lab-grown diamonds now priced at 3,500 yuan, significantly lower than natural diamonds [9][11]. - The lab-grown diamond industry in China is thriving, with production expected to reach approximately 22 million carats in 2024, representing a 144.44% year-on-year increase and accounting for 63% of global output [11].