从“压舱石”到“波动源”：日本国债缘何让全球投资者紧张？

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market, once a stabilizing force globally, is experiencing significant volatility as the yield on 40-year government bonds has surged above 4%, the highest in over 30 years, due to reduced bond purchases by the Bank of Japan and proposed tax cuts by the government [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Behind Rising Yields - The Bank of Japan, historically the largest buyer of government bonds, has begun to reduce its bond holdings, which had peaked in November 2023 [4]. - The Japanese government approved a substantial economic stimulus plan worth 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 137 billion USD), raising concerns about increased borrowing and bond issuance [5]. - Proposed tax cuts by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, which may require additional government borrowing, have further fueled investor anxiety regarding rising bond supply and potential price declines [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The increase in bond yields has led to a significant decline in the value of domestic bond portfolios, with Japan's four major life insurance companies reporting unrealized losses of approximately 60 billion USD, tripling from the previous fiscal year [7]. - The volatility in the bond market has prompted both the Bank of Japan and the government to express concerns, with the central bank planning to slow its exit from bond purchases to stabilize the market [8]. - Despite rising yields, foreign investors are increasing their holdings in Japanese bonds, now accounting for about 65% of monthly trading volume, up from 12% in 2009, as they seek to hedge against currency risks [6]. Group 3: Global Context - The global bond market is also under pressure, with rising yields observed in various major markets due to inflation concerns and expectations of central banks slowing or halting monetary easing [9].