2025年增长目标实现，今年仍需发力稳投资促消费| 宏观月报

Economic Growth and Projections - In 2025, China's economy successfully achieved its growth target despite external shocks, with a GDP growth of 5% for the year and a quarterly breakdown showing 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4 [5][6] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to benefit from ample project and policy reserves, aiming to boost investment and consumption [5][6] Financing and Credit Trends - In December 2025, the social financing scale increased by 22,080 billion yuan, with a total annual increase of 35.6 trillion yuan, up from 32.3 trillion yuan in 2024, supported by proactive fiscal policies [1] - The total new credit for 2025 was 16.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.82 trillion yuan compared to 2024, indicating a need for improved domestic investment and consumption [1][3] - The corporate sector saw a total new credit of 15.47 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 1.14 trillion yuan from 2024, driven by counter-cyclical policies and lower interest rates [3] Government Bonds and Fiscal Policy - Government bonds became a key support for social financing in 2025, with a total issuance of 13.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.54 trillion yuan from 2024 [4] - The M1 and M2 money supply growth rates improved in December 2025, with M1 at 3.8% and M2 at 8.5%, indicating a recovery in liquidity [4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in 2025 was 485,186 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, highlighting a shift in China's growth drivers [6][7] - Industrial investment showed resilience, with mining investment up 2.5%, manufacturing up 0.6%, and electricity and water supply up 9.1%, despite a 2.2% decline in infrastructure investment [7] - Equipment and tool purchases increased by 11.8% in 2025, driven by policies supporting new technologies [8] Consumption and Retail - The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 reached 501,202 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%, with December sales at 45,136 billion yuan, a 0.9% increase year-on-year [8] - To stimulate consumption, improving residents' income and consumption willingness is essential, particularly through enhancing property income [8] External Trade and Risks - In 2025, exports grew by 6.1%, surpassing the overall economic growth rate, despite challenges from external trade policies [9] - The adjustment of export tax rebates for solar and battery products starting in 2026 aims to redirect fiscal support towards domestic demand recovery [9] Price Levels and Inflation - In 2025, the CPI remained flat year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 0.7%, indicating a gradual recovery in price levels [10] - Policies aimed at reducing supply and enhancing demand are necessary to stabilize and increase industrial product prices moving forward [10]