“天量”存款到期，对A股意味着什么？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that a significant amount of deposits will mature in 2026, which could have various implications for banks and the stock market [2][3][7] - According to estimates, the maturity scale of residents' fixed-term deposits in 2026 is projected to reach approximately 75 trillion yuan, with 1-year and longer deposits maturing around 67 trillion yuan, representing a growth of 12% and 17% respectively compared to 2025 [2] - The maturity scale of long-term deposits for residents and enterprises is expected to be 58.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6 trillion yuan from 2025, with residents' deposits reaching 37.9 trillion yuan, marking the highest level in five years [2] Group 2 - For banks, the maturity of deposits may not necessarily be negative, as historical data shows that over 90% of matured deposits tend to remain within the banking system [3] - The process of renewing deposits after maturity will involve repricing, which could reduce the interest banks need to pay, potentially alleviating pressure on net interest margins [3] - The stock market may see an influx of funds from matured deposits, depending on the market's performance and the presence of a profit-making effect [3][4] Group 3 - It is anticipated that the potential incremental funds for A-shares in 2026 could reach around 3 trillion yuan, with public funds, insurance capital, and bank wealth management being the main contributors [4] - ETFs are gaining attractiveness as equity allocation products, and their growth could significantly contribute to the stock market's incremental funds [5] - Funds entering the market through ETFs are likely to flow into sectors with strong themes and performance, particularly in technology, driven by trends in AI and semiconductor industries [6] Group 4 - The influx of institutional funds is expected to provide substantial medium- to long-term capital to the A-share market, potentially reducing volatility and enhancing stability [7] - As the A-share market becomes more stable and sustainable, the willingness of residents to invest their matured deposits may increase, presenting an opportunity for the market [7]