潞化科技2025年预亏超6.38亿元，尿素业务拖累业绩

Core Viewpoint - LuHua Technology (600691.SH) is expected to report a net loss of 638 million to 863 million yuan for the year 2025, primarily due to low prices of its core products, urea and polyvinyl chloride, amid significant supply-demand imbalances in the industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company anticipates a net profit loss of 680 million to 920 million yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses for 2025 [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to two main factors: significant pressure on the main business due to weakened overall demand in the chemical market and the need for comprehensive impairment testing on various assets, leading to additional impairment provisions [1] - Urea business is a crucial profit pillar for the company, but it faces severe challenges in 2025 due to supply-demand imbalances and declining prices in the domestic urea industry [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - According to Longzhong Information, the domestic urea production capacity is expected to reach 73.8 million tons in 2025, with production exceeding 72 million tons, while effective market demand is around 65.5 million tons [2] - The average profit for new coal gasification urea in 2025 is projected to be around 221 yuan per ton, a decrease of 96 yuan per ton compared to 2024, with fixed bed and natural gas process urea enterprises likely facing annual losses [2] - Forecasts indicate that urea prices in 2026 will continue to operate at low levels with seasonal fluctuations, with expected monthly average prices ranging from 1590 to 1850 yuan per ton [2]