普通型人身险产品预定利率研究值降至1.89% 业内：预计今年人身险预定利率会维持现有水平

Core Viewpoint - The predetermined interest rate for personal insurance products has been updated to 1.89%, marking a fourth consecutive decline, but the rate of decrease is narrowing, indicating a stabilization trend in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Updates - The China Insurance Industry Association announced the latest predetermined interest rate for personal insurance products as 1.89% on January 20, 2025, following a quarterly release schedule [2]. - The predetermined interest rates for the previous quarters were 2.34%, 2.13%, 1.99%, and 1.90% for January, April, July, and October 2025, respectively, showing a consistent downward trend [2]. - The decline in the predetermined interest rate is attributed to the stabilization of the ten-year government bond yield, which currently hovers around 1.8% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - Analysts expect the downward adjustment of the predetermined interest rate to continue to narrow due to the stabilization of long-term interest rates and the recovery of capital markets since September 2024 [6][9]. - The insurance industry is likely to maintain the current level of predetermined interest rates through 2026, as the ten-year government bond yield is not expected to drop below 1% [8][9]. - The relationship between the predetermined interest rate and the ten-year government bond yield is crucial, as the latter provides a support level for the former, especially in light of recent market conditions [8][9].