3 6 Ke·2026-01-21 09:39Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart has dropped over 40% since reaching a peak of HKD 339.80 per share on August 26, 2022, primarily due to the decline in the premium of its phenomenon and IP LABUBU [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Pop Mart's stock has seen a significant decline, with the average transaction price of a single LABUBU blind box dropping by 23% compared to its highest price in the last 90 days [1]. - The number of short-sold shares of Pop Mart has sharply increased, nearing 10,000 shares since August 2025, indicating market anxiety [3]. - Following a share buyback announcement, Pop Mart's stock price increased by 7.96% since January 19, 2026, when the buyback was announced [12]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Product Management - Pop Mart has initiated a share buyback of 1.4 million shares for HKD 2.51 billion, signaling management's confidence to investors [3]. - The company has actively worked to combat scalpers and increase product availability, with LABUBU's sales potentially reaching 10 million units monthly [6]. - Pop Mart has successfully regained pricing power, allowing consumers to purchase regular products at near official prices while maintaining the scarcity of limited editions [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - LABUBU's revenue in the first half of 2025 reached CNY 4.81 billion, accounting for nearly one-third of Pop Mart's total revenue [5]. - Deutsche Bank reported that LABUBU's production capacity increased from 10 million units in the first half of 2025 to an average of 50 million units per month by the end of the year, potentially generating an adjusted net profit of approximately CNY 14.5 billion in 2025 [7]. - Analysts predict that Pop Mart's net profit will reach CNY 12.6 billion in 2025, supported by the recent share buyback [11].