英国2025年12月通胀率升至3.4% 未来仍存回落空间

Core Viewpoint - The UK consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.4% year-on-year in December 2025, a slight increase from 3.2% in November, but the market believes this short-term fluctuation does not affect the overall downward trend of inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The rise in inflation in December was primarily driven by an increase in tobacco taxes and a surge in demand for flights during the Christmas holiday [1] - The service sector inflation rate increased from 4.4% in November to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations, while manufacturing product prices remained stable, indicating no widespread inflationary pressure [1] Group 2: Future Inflation Expectations - Despite the monthly increase, the UK currently has the highest inflation rate among the G7 countries, but there is a clear expectation for a decline in the future [1] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey indicated that as one-off factors like rising utility costs drop out of the annual comparison, the inflation rate is expected to approach the central bank's 2% target by April or May 2026 [1] Group 3: Economic Predictions - Economists generally agree with this assessment, with PwC economist D'Souza stating that the December inflation rise is merely a "small hurdle" and does not deviate from the path of price stability [1] - Experts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research predict that the Bank of England may implement a rate cut in the first half of this year, provided geopolitical conditions remain stable [1] - Current market expectations suggest that the Bank of England may implement 1 to 2 rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points, following a reduction of the benchmark interest rate to 3.75% in December 2025 [1]