中国资金疯狂扫货白银！瑞银却突然泼冷水：小心过山车！

Core Viewpoint - UBS significantly raised its price forecasts for silver, platinum, and palladium, predicting a "two halves" market in 2026, with strong price increases in the first half followed by a return to fundamentals and a decline in the second half [1][2][5]. Price Forecast Adjustments - Silver is expected to rise approximately 25% from current levels, while platinum and palladium have potential increases of 5-6% [1][5]. - The new price forecasts for 2026 are as follows: - Silver: $78.8 (up 41% from previous $56.0) - Platinum: $1,952 (up 28% from previous $1,500) - Palladium: $1,670 (up 15% from previous $1,450) [3]. Market Dynamics - The increase in price forecasts is driven by heightened trading activity in the Chinese market, which has exceeded expectations since the second half of 2025 [1][9][10]. - UBS noted that the surge in trading volume in China has amplified the impact of market tightness on spot prices [5][10]. Price Trends and Risks - The first half of 2026 is expected to see strong prices, but the second half may see a return to fundamental pricing dynamics, leading to a gradual narrowing of price levels by year-end [6][7]. - UBS cautioned about potential downward risks, particularly in the second quarter, when the precious metals market typically experiences lower activity [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - UBS maintains a bullish outlook on gold, expecting it to continue rising in the first half of the year, with a potential increase of about 9% from current levels [1][12]. - The firm believes that silver will continue to follow gold's trajectory, while platinum is expected to recover gradually, and palladium may face a softening trend due to market balance and potential oversupply [6][12].