Ge Long Hui·2026-01-21 09:55Core Viewpoint - The rare metal tungsten, referred to as "industrial teeth," is expected to be the standout performer in the non-ferrous metal market in 2025, with tungsten prices skyrocketing from 200,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 600,000 yuan/ton by year-end, marking a staggering 300% increase and setting a historical high [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in tungsten prices is driven by a combination of rigid supply constraints and explosive demand growth, with APT (the core product of tungsten smelting) social inventory plummeting from a normal level of 600 tons to below 200 tons, and hard alloy companies having only 12 days of raw material inventory left, significantly below the 30-day safety line [3][4]. - The supply side is constrained by three main factors: policy control, resource depletion, and difficulty in increasing overseas production. The annual mining quota for tungsten in China has been reduced by 8.3% to 56,800 tons for 2025, limiting production even as prices rise [4][5]. Demand Explosion - The demand structure for tungsten has fundamentally changed in 2025, with the share of demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing rising from 15% in 2024 to 30%, moving away from traditional steel industry reliance [6][8]. - The photovoltaic industry is a major source of demand growth, with tungsten wire replacing carbon steel wire in silicon wafer cutting due to its superior strength and wear resistance [8]. - The demand from the electric vehicle sector is also rapidly increasing, with each vehicle requiring approximately 2-8 kg of tungsten, and global EV sales expected to grow by 20% in 2025, adding 10,500 tons of tungsten demand [8]. Profit Distribution - The profits from the surge in tungsten prices are not evenly distributed across the industry chain, with upstream resource companies being the biggest winners. For instance, a 10,000 yuan/ton increase in tungsten prices can boost net profits significantly for companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtung High-tech [9][10]. - Midstream smelting companies face challenges due to rising raw material costs and tight supply, leading to reduced profit margins for smaller firms [10]. Future Outlook - The consensus in the industry is that the supply-demand gap will remain unbridgeable, with tungsten prices expected to stay high for the next 3-5 years. The global primary tungsten supply growth rate is projected to be only 2%-3% from 2026 to 2030, significantly lower than demand growth [11][12]. - Analysts predict that black tungsten concentrate prices will fluctuate between 460,000 and 520,000 yuan/ton in 2026, with potential for prices to exceed 500,000 yuan/ton if China tightens exports further [12]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: upstream resource leaders like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten, high-end manufacturing leaders like Zhongtung High-tech, and niche players in high-value sectors such as tungsten-based new materials and military-grade tungsten alloys [13][14]. - The demand growth for tungsten is closely tied to the most promising growth sectors over the next 5-10 years, providing long-term support for tungsten prices and enhancing the investment value of leading companies in the industry [14].