全球狂飙，机构集体强烈看涨

Group 1 - The international gold market has experienced an unexpected strong rally since the beginning of 2026, with gold prices rising from $4,340 per ounce to a historical peak of $4,891.1 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of 12.7% in less than 20 days [1] - Domestic gold futures also surged, with the main contract price rising by 4.61% to surpass 1,100 yuan per gram [1] - Gold stocks have seen a significant increase, with over ten gold stocks, including Zhaojin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, hitting the daily limit [2] Group 2 - The gold ETF (159562) rose by 5.73% today, with a cumulative increase of 25.82% over the past 13 trading days, reaching a new historical high [3] - The market is increasingly optimistic about gold prices reaching the previously considered unattainable $5,000 per ounce mark, as institutions frequently adjust their target prices upward [5] Group 3 - The surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks, monetary policy, central bank allocations, and the reconstruction of dollar credit [7] - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. trade actions against Denmark and other countries, have led to a significant influx of safe-haven investments into gold [8] - Denmark's announcement to sell approximately $1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds marks a significant move in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions [9] Group 4 - Historical data shows a significant upward trend in gold prices during Trump's presidency, with prices rising from approximately $1,204 per ounce at his inauguration in January 2017 to about $4,880 per ounce by January 2026, reflecting a cumulative increase of 78.75% [10] - The acceleration of U.S. debt has raised concerns about the potential risks associated with dollar reserves, prompting central banks globally to increase their gold holdings [12] Group 5 - The global demand for gold bars and coins increased by 18% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 1,250 tons, the highest since 2011 [17] - China's gold market ETF saw a net inflow of approximately 118 billion yuan (about 190 tons) in 2025, accounting for 26.6% of global gold ETF inflows [18] Group 6 - Institutions are increasingly optimistic about the future performance of gold, with several major financial institutions raising their target prices for gold significantly [21] - Goldman Sachs has raised its end-of-2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing structural central bank purchases and expected interest rate cuts as key support factors [21] - Domestic institutions also share a positive outlook, with predictions for gold prices to reach around $4,950 to $5,000 per ounce [22]