“金丝雀”报喜！韩国1月出口初步增长14.9%，芯片出口激增70%

Core Insights - South Korea's exports saw a significant increase of 14.9% year-on-year in the first 20 days of January, primarily driven by a surge in semiconductor demand due to the global AI boom [1][2] - Semiconductor exports skyrocketed by 70.2%, continuing the growth trend fueled by strong investments in AI and data centers, which helped offset declines in traditional sectors like automotive and shipbuilding [1][2] - Despite structural pressures from U.S. tariffs and a slowdown in global demand, the robust performance of high-tech exports has narrowed the trade deficit to $626 million [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector remains the core engine of South Korea's export growth, with a notable 70.2% increase in chip exports in January, driven by AI-related demand [2] - South Korea's position in the global semiconductor supply chain is further emphasized, with projected exports reaching a record $709.4 billion in 2025, a 3.8% year-on-year increase, and a 22% rise in semiconductor shipments [2] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductors and related equipment, which could impact South Korean manufacturers if they do not increase production in the U.S. [2] Regional Export Performance - Exports to China increased by 30.2%, and exports to the U.S. rose by 19.3%, indicating stable demand in major markets [3] - However, exports to the EU and Japan fell by approximately 15% and 13%, respectively, highlighting structural market disparities amid global economic and policy differences [3] Automotive Sector Challenges - The automotive sector faced significant challenges, with exports declining nearly 11% due to U.S. tariff policies and a slowdown in global demand [4] - Shipbuilding exports also dropped by 18%, reflecting the headwinds faced by traditional manufacturing industries [4] - Despite a trade agreement that set a 15% cap on import tariffs, the current rates remain higher than previous free trade arrangements, continuing to pressure the automotive sector [4] Currency Effects - The weakening of the Korean won has provided crucial support for exports, with the currency depreciating over 8% against the dollar since June [6] - While currency depreciation enhances the price competitiveness of export products, it also raises import costs, contributing to inflationary pressures [6] - The Bank of Korea has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% for the fifth consecutive time, indicating a neutral policy stance amid mixed economic outlooks [6]