燕京啤酒(000729)：改革红利持续释放 土地收储款进一步增厚利润

Group 1 - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.584 to 1.742 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65% [1] - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be 1.457 to 1.561 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [1] - The profit growth is attributed to both the improvement in the main business and the recognition of land reserve payments from subsidiaries, which will add approximately 132 million yuan to the net profit [1] Group 2 - In the context of a weak recovery in consumption, the beer industry has seen a slowdown in production growth, with a reported 0.3% year-on-year decline in national beer production from January to November 2025 [2] - The company is optimizing its product matrix and expanding sales channels, focusing on high-end and youth-oriented strategies, with the flagship product Yanjing U8 experiencing significant sales growth [2] - The product structure includes a three-tier framework of high-end, mid-range, and regional specialty products, along with differentiated offerings like non-alcoholic white beer and dry beer to meet diverse consumer needs [2] Group 3 - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.596 billion, 1.886 billion, and 2.178 billion yuan respectively, with current price-to-earnings ratios of 22x, 18x, and 16x [3] - The rapid growth of the flagship product U8 is expected to drive sustained performance, and there remains significant room for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3] - The company is rated as "buy" based on its position as a leading domestic beer brand and its growth potential [3]