连平：2026年建议采取更有力度的针对性政策举措

Group 1 - The report predicts that developed economies may face stagflation risks in 2026, leading to uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may exceed market expectations and follow a non-linear path of "cut first, then raise" [1] - Global stock markets are expected to experience volatile upward trends in 2026, with structural differentiation driven by capital flows, valuation differences, and policy uncertainties [1] - The dollar is likely to remain relatively weak, fluctuating within the 95-100 range, while gold prices may trend upwards in the medium to long term, showing "high-level fluctuations, overall strength, and narrowing gains" [1] Group 2 - In China, a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in macroeconomic regulation, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures [2] - The consumption landscape is anticipated to improve significantly in 2026, driven by clear policy direction, steady income growth, and enhanced consumption infrastructure [2] - China's exports are projected to maintain stable growth due to the country's competitive advantages and increasing diversification of export markets [2] Group 3 - To further stimulate economic growth, targeted policy measures are recommended, including increased fiscal and credit support for service consumption and the implementation of an "external capital industry chain empowerment plan" [3] - Emphasis is placed on the role of major economic provinces in driving growth and incentivizing private enterprises to engage in technological innovation [3] - Attention is also needed to address local fiscal challenges and to implement risk warning and prevention measures in the stock market [3]