TSMC(US:TSM) 智通财经网·2026-01-21 11:30Core Viewpoint - The recent earnings season for U.S. stocks has shown that actual profits significantly exceeded market expectations, yet investors reacted with the worst stock price performance following earnings beats on record, indicating a cautious sentiment towards future guidance and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][5][15]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Approximately 81% of S&P 500 companies reported actual profits that surpassed fourth-quarter consensus estimates, but their stock prices lagged the benchmark index by an average of 1.1 percentage points, marking the worst relative performance since 2017 [1][15]. - Companies like 3M and State Street saw significant stock price declines despite beating earnings expectations, as investors focused on their bleak forecasts [2][15]. - Netflix's disappointing earnings outlook led to a pre-market drop of about 6%, failing to provide a positive start to the earnings season for tech giants [2][15]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Investors are increasingly focused on management comments and earnings guidance, particularly regarding AI computing demand and consumer health, which are critical narratives for the ongoing bull market [6][13]. - The current market threshold for upward movement is not merely beating consensus expectations but rather providing strong forward guidance to justify high valuations in a sensitive macroeconomic environment [7][13]. - The S&P 500 is trading at approximately 22 times forward earnings, above the 10-year average of 19 times, indicating that any signs of weak demand could trigger significant sell-offs [13][15]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Concerns - Concerns over geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties, exacerbated by aggressive tariff threats from former President Trump, have led to increased scrutiny from investors in the historically high U.S. stock market [8][15]. - The potential for a global trade war has heightened investor caution, impacting sentiment towards the stock market as it enters its third year of a bull run [8][15]. Group 4: Specific Company Insights - TSMC reported exceptionally strong earnings, with a gross margin exceeding 60% and a projected revenue growth rate of nearly 30% for 2026, significantly boosting investor confidence in semiconductor stocks [14][15]. - The demand for DRAM and NAND storage chips remains robust, driven by the increasing importance of these products in AI training and inference systems, highlighting a critical growth area in the tech sector [13][14].