无视特朗普搅局？华尔街机构坚守多头阵地：历史显示动荡后美股六成概率反弹

Core Viewpoint - Despite geopolitical tensions and market volatility, Wall Street strategists believe the foundation for market growth remains solid, presenting a buying opportunity [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - Historical data shows that geopolitical risks typically have a limited impact on stock markets, with 60% of the time seeing market gains within three months following significant geopolitical events since 1940, unless oil prices surge dramatically [1][2]. - Current oil prices are significantly below long-term averages, indicating that the ongoing geopolitical tensions have not yet reached a critical threshold for the stock market [2]. Group 2: Earnings Growth - Analysts project a 9% growth in corporate profits for Q4, with double-digit growth expected in each quarter of 2026 [7]. - In the first week of earnings reports for S&P 500 companies, 73% exceeded analyst expectations, surpassing the average of 68% for this period [7]. - Factors such as tax cuts, real wage growth, and declining inflation are expected to support stock market performance, alongside continued returns from AI trading [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - While bullish sentiment prevails, strategists acknowledge the need for caution due to increased volatility, with the bull-bear ratio among individual investors reaching its highest level since 2024 [8]. - Investment managers are maintaining high equity positions, close to 96%, but are advised to hedge against potential risks [8]. - Strategists from major firms like Barclays and JPMorgan suggest maintaining a bullish stance while implementing hedges to manage risks, especially as volatility is anticipated to rise [8][9].